Taken from Bosch Zuender, June 5, 2009
Adolph Ahnefeld, chief economist of the Bosch Group: The worst of the crisis is over now
Economic development forecasts range from dramatic to cautiously optimistic. Adolph Ahnefeld, chief economist of the Bosch Group, calls for a level-headed view of the situation.
- The current situation is being compared with the Great Depression, when millions of people were out of work. Could things really get that bad?
That is going too far. The global economy has fallen back to a position comparable to the one in 2006, which was hardly a time of mass global unemployment.
- So is the media exaggerating the severity of this recession?
No, but we need to look at this development realistically. The turmoil in the financial markets has triggered a serious downturn in a number of sectors worldwide. The automotive industry in particular has been hit harder than ever before. Many people have lost their jobs as a result, especially in the United States. But this does not mean that the global economic system has collapsed.
The situation has bottomed out and the worst is over. This assessment is based on a number of observations. First, the demand for houses and cars has started growing again in several markets, albeit from a low level. This is an important signal that consumers in Europe, the US, and Asia have begun to have a more positive outlook for the future. This in turn has led to slightly more optimistic economic growth forecasts. I would not, however, advise a premature sense of euphoria.
- And what does all this mean for Bosch?
We must take a realistic view. It will take us several years to regain the position that we enjoyed in 2007, so we must be prepared for a bumpy road ahead in most of our divisions. Unlike in previous months, however, we can now see light at the end of the tunnel.